from the conferences organized by TANGER Ltd.
Railway transport is a key branch for the development of intermodal transport. In 2016, intermodal transport in Poland had an 8.8 % share in transport performance and was higher by over 1.4 percentage point than in 2015. In 2017, further increase in intermodal railway transport was recorded. The average in EU countries has been stable at around 16 % since 2009. The year 2018 in Poland in intermodal transport was characterized by an increase in all parameters compared to 2017. Although the share of intermodal transport in total freight is steadily increasing, it is still insufficient. The freight transport structure in Poland is dominated by road transport, which generates the highest external costs. The current structure of flows in the freight transport network is unfavorable given the sustainable development. The purpose of the article is to indicate the scenario of railway freight transport development in Poland by 2030. Factors affecting the development of railway transport are very diverse. Therefore, in assessing the development of railway transport, we proposed one of the heuristic methods of scenario analysis. The scenario analysis allowed to examine the phenomena affecting the development of railway freight transport in the long term. According to her methodology, we generated the most probable scenario, which we compared with the optimistic and pessimistic scenario.
Keywords: Scenario analysis, intermodal network, railway transport, determinants© This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.